The observation of the month of July gave us some support to project some situations about the rest of this year.
It certainly continues to be a year of innumerable uncertainties, in which the Threats in a SWOT are many, leaving everyone with the great challenge of seeking subsidies to make a decision regarding the strategy to be implemented by all Foreign Trade actors.
Covid continues to be prominent among the threats, with Ominicron BA.5 variants increasing contamination levels worldwide, despite a drastic reduction in testing levels.
Contrary to all countries, China remains firm in its “Covid Zero” policy, even if it seriously affects its economy, which is expected to have the lowest growth in the last 10 years.
It recently closed a district of Wuhan, where it all started, with 1 million inhabitants in Lockdown and for having found only 5 asymptomatic cases of Covid, in a clear message that attitudes will be taken in case of the emergence of new cases, even in extremely important regions. for International Trade, as it did recently, closing Shanghai for two months.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains intense and there is no sign that Russia intends to back down.
In retaliation for the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russia continues to reduce the supply of gas to Europe, reaching only 20%, which terrifies the continent about the next winter.
Europe, in turn, intensified the purchase of Liquefied Natural Gas, causing world prices to rise, affecting almost all nations.
Allied to other factors of rising interest rates, high inflation and the consequent increase in the cost of living, serious disturbances in the relationship with workers begin to appear around the world.
We highlight the cases of port workers in Germany, rail workers in the United States and recently the strike of 20,000 Lufthansa ground workers at German airports.
With all these threats in sight, there was a strong anticipation of purchases in an effect called “Pull Forward”, which even with orders for new purchases already low at this moment, makes all global logistics remain complicated, keeping the congestion of stores. ports, ship delays and intermodality itself with road and rail transport.
In maritime transport, freights that have already reached 600% higher than pre-pandemic levels have dropped to 200%, however, spaces will be restricted again this month until November at least and consequently, freight levels will tend to high after the fall with the Shanghai shutdown months.
The only certainty we have about sea freight is that they will never stop being volatile, but with the defragmentation of the market and the famous action by the shipowners called “Blank Sailing”, the margins of this volatility will certainly be narrower and we will hardly see a shipping at pre-pandemic levels.
Air freight breathes a little easier with a good return of passenger aircraft this summer in the northern hemisphere, which also means a good increase for cargo space in this type of aircraft.
An effect has already been felt on the freight of freighter aircraft and this could be a sign that the high air freight party may be starting to end.
We must keep our focus on planning the entire supply chain as quickly as possible and seek to strengthen relationships with strategic partners for our business.
Count on MAC Logistic to deliver more than just logistics.